The Sixers seem to be unabashedly star-hunting at the moment, but there’s no guarantee that they’ll land the likes of Paul George, Jimmy Butler or even Brandon Ingram this offseason. If they don’t, they appear poised to prioritize maintaining flexibility for when the next star shakes loose.
“In the event Philadelphia is unable to land a big fish this summer, look for the Sixers to flush out their roster with similar non-guaranteed money as of the past season’s approach,” Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports recently reported. “Philadelphia, sources said, will prioritize being nimble with salaries in order to move whenever the next disgruntled star becomes available.”
If the Sixers don’t make their big splash this summer, they’ll miss the opportunity to take advantage of Tyrese Maxey’s well-below-market $13.0 million cap hold. He’s a virtual lock to sign a max extension starting at $35.3 million once the Sixers spend their cap space, so he’ll have a far higher cap hit going into next offseason.
That wouldn’t necessarily prevent the Sixers from going star-hunting in 2025, though.
With only Maxey ($38.1 million), Joel Embiid ($55.2 million) and 10 incomplete roster charges of roughly $1.3 million each (temporary cap holds when teams have fewer than 12 players under contract), the Sixers could still have around $49 million in cap space in 2025-26 if the cap jumps to $155.1 million, which is the maximum 10 percent it’s allowed to rise. Based on the latest reports about the NBA’s new national TV contracts, which begin in the 2025-26 season, it’s likely safe to pencil in that full 10 percent jump.
To create that $49.0 million of cap space, the Sixers would have to trade the No. 16 pick in this year’s draft before next offseason and not sign anyone—their own free agents or players from other teams—to contracts that are guaranteed beyond 2024-25. They’d also have to waive everyone other than Embiid and Maxey and trade their 2025 first-round pick if it unexpectedly doesn’t convey to the San Antonio Spurs (top-six protected).
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25479811/Screenshot_2024_06_05_at_11.00.45_PM.png "How much cap space the Sixers could have in 2025 after another gap year (1)")
If the cap does land at $155.1 million in 2025-26, a 25 percent max contract would begin at $38.8 million, a 30 percent max would start at $46.5 million and a 35 percent max would begin at $54.3 million. The Sixers couldn’t quite afford a 35 percent max, but they could do a 25 or 30 percent max. However, they’d have almost no flexibility to round out their roster after signing a 30 percent max aside from the $8.8 million room mid-level exception.
For the sake of comparison: If the Sixers signed someone to a 35 percent max ($49.4 million) this summer, they could have nearly $16.8 million in cap space left over, plus the $8.0 million room MLE. They could have $23.8 million in cap space if they signed someone to a 30 percent max ($42.3 million) and nearly $30.9 million in cap space after a 25 percent max ($35.3 million).
From a cap-space perspective, it’d be optimal to add the third star this summer and then work on building out the supporting cast around him, Embiid and Maxey. But if that isn’t possible, the Sixers could have an array of options at their disposal next offseason, too. The likes of Butler, Ingram, Donovan Mitchell and Jalen Brunson are all currently slated to become free agents in 2025, although some may sign extensions to preemptively take themselves off the market.
The Denver Nuggets, who already face the prospect of losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency this summer, could be at DEFCON 1 next year. Jamal Murray is heading into the final year of his contract, while Aaron Gordon could (and likely will) join him as a free agent in 2025 by declining his $22.8 million player option. The Nuggets figure to fight tooth and nail to re-sign both, but they’re also poised to be a second-apron team, which will limit their flexibility to continue rounding out their roster around Nikola Jokic.
If the Sixers signed Murray or Gordon away from Denver in 2025, they’d be weakening one of their biggest threats in the West while simultaneously bolstering their own roster. They wouldn’t even have to go that far to accomplish that goal, though. Derrick White may be ripe for the picking straight up I-95 in Boston.
The Celtics just signed Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday to extensions over the past year, and Jayson Tatum is sure to follow suit this summer. Can they afford another big-money commitment to White as well? If not, his defense and off-ball shooting would make him an ideal backcourt complement to Maxey.
Gordon and White aren’t the only two non-All-Star-caliber starters who could make a huge impact on the Sixers at a well-below-max price in 2025. If Minnesota Timberwolves big man Naz Reid declines his $15.0 million player option for the 2025-26 season, he could be the rich man’s version of Paul Reed. #FutureSixer Alex Caruso and #PastAndFutureSixer T.J. McConnell are set to become free agents next summer, too.
Rolling over financial flexibility into 2025 wouldn’t help team president Daryl Morey escape the “Scam Hinkie 2.0” allegations. Morey also shouldn’t care. As he made clear during his end-of-season press conference, the worst thing the Sixers could do this offseason is splurge on a well-below-max player at a max or near-max price. (That move is also known around these parts as the “Tobias Harris.”)
“The main mistake that could be made—that we won’t make—is if some of the better options don’t go our way,” Morey said. “Trade into our cap space, free agents, turn our draft picks into things. If all of those things don’t yield what we want, we are definitely not going to just sign for a lot of money some player who’s just an OK player. That’s not happening. Because that will be where we can’t continue to build a contender around Joel and Tyrese.
“In those scenarios, we’ll be doing shorter deals and then using our draft picks to set ourselves up for trades or set ourselves up for the next opportunity when it comes.”
The Sixers should not be going into this offseason with the intention of signing players to short-term contracts to roll over their flexibility to 2025. Because of Maxey’s cap-hold trick, they’d be far better off spending their cap space this summer. But as far as fallback scenarios go, being able to create nearly $50 million in cap space next year isn’t a terrible worst-case scenario.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.
