NOAA has updated its prediction for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, more than two months and four named storms after its first prediction was released in May.
This season could "rank among the busiest on record," NOAA announced Thursday, Aug. 8, while updating its prediction on the number of named storms slightly lower but increasing the chance for an above-normal season to 90%.
With the peak of hurricane season approaching fast, NOAA urged everyone to know their risk, to prepare for threats and to have a plan.
➤ New 'cone of concern' coming soon
➤Weather alerts via text:Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
Every forecast has predicted an extremely active season.
Several factors contribute to the predictions for a busy season, including record warm water temperatures and the presence of La Niña. Both favor the development and intensification of tropical cyclones.
➤ Interactive map: Track active storms
“Get prepared, stay prepared. That is the best way to reduce risk,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad.
Here's what the National Hurricane Center is predicting and how those predictions compare to AccuWeather,Colorado State University and Florida's WeatherTiger.
NOAA predicting 17-24 named storms for 2024 Atlantic hurricane season
In its Aug. 8 seasonal update, NOAA made slight changes to the original forecast released in May. Here's the latest forecast:
- Named storms: 17-24
- Hurricanes: 8-13
- Major hurricanes: 4-7
- Above normal season: 90%
- Near normal season: 10%
A major hurricane is a Category 3 storm or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
Original NOAA hurricane season forecast issued in May
The National Hurricane Center predicted in its initial forecast for the season, released in May, there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season.
NHC forecasters predicted:
- Named storms: 17-25
- Hurricanes: 8-13
- Major hurricanes: 4-7
- Above normal season: 85%
- Near normal season: 10%
- Below normal season: 5%
How does NOAA's forecast for hurricane season compare to an average season?
- Named storms: 17-24; an average season has 14 named storms.
- Hurricanes: 8-13; an average season has seven hurricanes.
- Major hurricanes: 4-7; an average season has three major hurricanes.
The record was 30 named storms in 2020.
How many hurricanes and tropical storms have hit Florida?
Between 1880 and 2020, Florida has been impacted by 274 named storms, 115 hurricanes and 48 major hurricanes, Colorado State University reported, using NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website.
AccuWeather predicting 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could break record
AccuWeather is predicting this season has the potential to break the all-time recordof 30 named storms in one season.
- 20-25 named storms
- 8-12 hurricanes
- 4-7 major hurricanes
- 4-6 direct U.S. impacts
Colorado State University forecasters predicting 23 named storms
CSU's updated 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecastupdated in August calls for:
- 23 named storms
- 12 hurricanes
- 6 major hurricanes
Florida's WeatherTiger forecasts 22-26 named storms in 2024 hurricane season
Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, predicted the 2024 season is "nearly certain to be more active than average and has a 25% chance of being the busiest on record."
- 22-26 tropical storms
- 10-13 hurricanes
- 5-8 major hurricanes
Truchelut works with the USA TODAY Network-Florida to provide the latest storm information Florida residents need.
Be prepared:2024 will be a busy hurricane season in Florida. Here's what you should start doing
Why is the 2024 hurricane season expected to be so busy?
Factors contributing to the above-normal predictions for a "remarkably active" 2024 hurricane season include:
- Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.
- Reduced vertical wind shear.
- Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds.
- An enhanced west African monsoon.
- Possible development of La Niña in the coming months.
All of those conditions favor the development and strengthening of tropical cyclones.
"These conditions are expected to continue into the fall. Of note, the dry Saharan air that prevented tropical storm development during portions of the middle of the summer is expected to subside in August, the National Hurricane Center said.
How many tropical cyclones does an average hurricane season have?
Based on a 30-year average from 1991 to 2020, thetypical Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher storm, and a storm is classified as a Category 3 when maximum sustained winds are at least 111 mph, according toNOAA.
The record for the number of named storms in a season is 30, which was set in 2020.
Thefirst named storm typically forms in mid-to-late June, the first hurricane tends to form in early to mid-August, and the first major hurricane forms in late August or early September.
Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, and that was only one of many records it set.
Seasonal hurricane forecast is not a landfall forecast
"NOAA’s Hurricane Season Outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast.
"Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline."
Stay up to date with our daily tropical outlooks.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. However, storms can — and have — formed before and after those dates.
Since 2003, there have been15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1. Eleven of those storms formed in May.
There have been two occasions over the last 20 years a tropical cyclone has formed in the Atlantic basin in January, including Hurricane Alex in 2016.
National Hurricane Center making changes for 2024 hurricane season
The National Hurricane Center announced earlier this year it would implement several changes for the 2024 hurricane season to improve communication. Those improvements include:
- Beginning on or around Aug. 15, an experimental version of the cone of uncertainty graphic will include storm watches and warnings for inland counties. Previous graphics showed watches and warnings only for coastal counties.
- Public advisories, tropical cyclone discussions, tropical cyclone updates and key messages will also be provided in Spanish.
- U.S. tropical cyclone watches and warnings will be issued with regular and intermediate public advisories instead of only with regular advisories. Regular advisories are issued every six hours, with intermediate advisories issued three hours after every regular advisory.
Fixation on Saffir-Simpson Scale:National Hurricane Center hoping new cone will stop fixation on Saffir-Simpson Scale
New tools should help hurricane forecasts, including showing potential for rapid intensification
Two new forecast models developed by NOAA researchers will go into operation this season, the National Hurricane Center said:
- TheModular Ocean Model or MOM6will "improve the representation of the key role the ocean plays in driving hurricane intensity."
- TheSDCON will predict the probability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification.
Additional tools include NOAA’snew generation of Flood Inundation Mapping, which will "provide information to emergency and water managers to prepare and respond to potential flooding and help local officials better prepare to protect people and infrastructure."
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, in partnership with the NHC, also will issue an experimental rainfall graphic for the Caribbean and Central America during the 2024 hurricane season.
